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“ Since the end of 2023, with even less development taking place, second-hand supply has meant the vacancy rate of Open A1 non-food units has dropped to 5.5% from 6.0%. A further 2.8 million sq. ft. of space is currently under offer with another 691,000 sq. ft. earmarked for non-retail redevelopment, meaning the percentage of space actually available to let is as low as 3.3% .” ” Retail warehousing vacancy rates in the UK have once again fallen, now at 5.1% at the end of Q2 2024 according to the latest research by Trevor Wood Associates (TWA), compared to 5.8% at the turn of the year and 5.6% at Q1 2024.The major contributor to the significant fall in vacancy is retailers continuing to take advantage of the amount of second-hand supply made available by various administrations and CVA’s, so far in 2024 over 0.95 million sq. ft. of vacant space has been taken and 3.889 million sq. ft. in total has opened or is due to open this year. The Grocery sector continues to thrive on established parks or retail warehouse sites with Lidl opening 129,000 sq. ft. out of town while Iceland and the food WAREHOUSE have added 112,000 sq. ft. and Farmfoods added over 98,000 sq. ft. of space to their portfolios. The usual suspects also continue to lead the way in taking vacant space, B & M have opened or have committed to open another 20 units and Home Bargains added another 269,000 sq.ft. to their portfolio. Pure Gym opened (or will open) another 172,000 sq. ft. and Sports Direct added another 6 units while Marks & Spencer and M & S Food Hall collectively added another 177,000 sq. ft. since the end of last year. The size of units and retailer requirements are also changing with over 459,000 sq. ft. of lettings in 2024 taken by retailers in units of 5,000 sq. ft. or below. We continue to see the rise of drive-thrus and drive-tos with Costa Coffee, Greggs, McDonald’s and Starbucks increasing their presence in the booming drive-thru market. After completing our analysis of the Q2 vacancy rate figure, Carpetright announced their administration on the 22nd July with 214 units on retail warehousing schemes accounting for over 1,978,000 sq. ft. of floorspace. Tapi have rescued 48 of those units, totalling 430,000 sq. ft. which has helped ease the impact of the administration. However, the remaining vacant units have temporarily increased the vacancy rate to 5.9%. This figure should be treated with caution as good quality retail warehousing space is in short supply and by the time we publish our Q3 figures later this year it’s very likely a considerable amount of this space will already be let or under offer. Image credits: William - stock.adobe.com

Learn more from the highlights of our latest research. Navigating Through Change: Resilience and Recovery The landscape of the OOT market is showing promising signs of stability. In the face of shifting inflation rates, rising costs, and interest rate changes, resilience has been the industry’s hallmark. Our detailed review sheds light on this resilience, highlighting a sector poised for recovery. The rebasing of rents and prices marks a significant milestone, signalling a sector that’s ready to move forward. Embracing Opportunities Despite the challenges of 2023 in the retail sector, including CVAs and administrations, their impact on the OOT market has been notably less severe than in previous years, underlining the sector’s robustness and adaptive capabilities. Leading the Way: Key Players and Emerging Dynamics Investment Management: The ascendancy of American company Realty Income as a premier investment manager in retail warehousing signifies a shift in the major players investing in the sector. Retail Parks Leadership: Consistency at the top echelons, with Middlebrook Retail & Leisure Park and Castlepoint Shopping Park maintaining their premier positions as flagship destinations. Letting and Managing Agents: The continued dominance of Curson Sowerby Partners and Savills in their respective areas reinforces their positions as industry leaders. A Diverse Landscape: Regional Insights and Market Nuances: Our in-depth analysis extends to the unique market dynamics across the UK. Notably, some regional frontrunners in investment management carve their niche outside the national top twenty, highlighting the distinct characteristics of regional markets. Retailer Evolution and Market Adaptations: Adapting to Change: Retailers such as Wilko and Argos shed space.  Whilst the growth of entities like Pure Gym and Home Bargains signals other retailers are still taking advantage of available floorspace. Looking Ahead: Promising Prospects Vacancy Rates and Market Appeal: The downtrend in vacancy rates, now at 5.6% for Q1 2024. Development Pipeline: Despite a slight contraction in the pipeline for new schemes, the fruition of several projects in 2023 adds floorspace into the market. In Conclusion: A base to move ahead from Our 2024 edition of The Definitive Guide to Retail & Leisure Parks offers a deep dive into the sector's present state and potential future, serving as the industry resource to help you navigate out of town retail.  Your complimentary copy of the key findings is free to download and subscription options to our in-depth analysis and data can be found at www.definitiveguide.co.uk. Join us in this ongoing conversation. We appreciate all of your feedback and inquiries as we continue to lead the industry with our out-of-town retail and leisure coverage.

“Although the vacancy rate has risen in the last quarter we are of the belief that this is a temporary blip and when we look at Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 figures we’ll see the trend of very low vacancy rates continue. The market is in short supply of quality retail warehousing in good locations and we expect the majority of the Wilko units will be snapped up by retailers with aggressive roll out plans looking to take advantage of these spaces made available” Retail warehousing vacancy rates in the UK have risen for the first time in over 2 years, now at 5.7% at the end of Q3 2023 according to the latest research by Trevor Wood Associates (TWA), compared to 5.4% at Q2 and 5.8% at Q1 2023. The major contributor to the rise is the administration and closure of Wilko in September 2023 which led to nearly 0.90 million square feet of retail warehouse space becoming vacant. This figure should be treated with some caution as a number of these units are under offer and B & M have confirmed they shall be opening in the units they’ve purchased steadily over the next 12 months. It’s interesting to note the figure has fallen within Bulky Goods units, they remained largely unaffected by the Wilko’s closures, now at 4.2% - the lowest we have ever recorded. The sharpest increase was felt within Open A1 including food schemes which rose to 5.8%, a one percent increase to the Q2 figure of 4.8% while Open A1 Non-Food fell slightly to 6.2% (6.3% at Q2). Overall 2.77 million sq. ft. of space is under offer with a further 530,000 sq. ft. earmarked for non-retail purposes, if we were to remove both of those from our figures the vacancy rate would fall towards 4.0%. Image credits: James - stock.adobe.com

The UK retail landscape is poised for potential upheaval. With Wilko - one of the UK's largest privately-owned retailers - teetering on the brink of administration, the repercussions could be felt across the retail property spectrum. At Trevor Wood Associates, as a leader in retail property intelligence, we provide some insight into how these developments could reshape out-of-town and shopping centre retail environments across the country. Wilko currently operates from 400 stores nationwide with 255 prominently positioned within shopping centres and out-of-town retail locations. Our analysis of this part of Wilko's estate, encompassing 255 out-of-town and shopping centre locations, or 5.5 million square feet of store space, illustrates the possible impact from the retailer's financial predicament. The impact would be felt across shopping centres, retail parks, and smaller retail sites, creating challenges for landlords and the wider retail sector to overcome. Wilko's retail presence is both extensive and diverse, with units ranging from smaller sites in places like St Mary's Place and Merrion Centre, Leeds, to sprawling stores exceeding 50,000 sq ft in locations such as The Mercury Shopping Centre, Romford, Beacon Shopping Centre, North Shields, and Union Square Shopping Centre, Torquay. However, the potential fallout from Wilko's administration extends beyond shopping centres, reaching into retail parks, shopping parks, and retail warehousing developments. These sites have traditionally relied on the high footfall attracted by Wilko, a staple store offering a diverse array of household goods. However, our recent research on low vacancy rates across the UKs retail parks suggest the larger retail park locations could be in high demand in the event of a Wilko exit. Or likely retained as prime space in any sale. While the traditional UK high streets face yet another hammer blow with low footfall single high street locations potentially becoming vacant. As the retail landscape continues to evolve, Trevor Wood continues to monitor the UK retail property market. To access our tools to gain insight into how the UK retail landscape could change and how this might affect your investment, development, or retail strategy please get in touch.

“Looking at the third quarter 2023 there are a considerable number of units under offer or with plans to redevelop so with that in mind, we do believe the vacancy rate will continue to fall.” The regional retail warehousing vacancy rates in the UK have all fallen to Q2 2023 with East Anglia once again recording the lowest overall vacancy rate at 3.4%, which is 2% below the national average. This regional data should be treated with extreme caution as market size in regions other than the South East and North West is such that, when a major retailer withdraws from the market - or when a retailer closes one or more stores - many figures are temporarily distorted while the market reacts to these major changes. The North region recorded the greatest fall, down to 4.8% from 7.0% in Q4 2022 with the West Midlands and Yorkshire & Humberside also recording decreases of 1% or more. The smallest decreases were recorded by East Anglia, the North West, the South East and Wales at 0.3%. If we compare these figures with post pandemic rates 5 years ago the North once again records the biggest decrease – falling by 5.6% over that time. Northern Ireland and the South West both recorded decreases of nearly 4% while the East Midlands had the smallest fall over 5 years at 0.1%.

"Since the end of 2022, with even less development taking place, second-hand supply has meant the vacancy rate of Open A1 non-food units has dropped to 6.3.% from 7.3%. A further 2.9 million sq. ft. of space is currently under offer with another 684,000 sq. ft. earmarked for non-retail redevelopment, meaning the percentage of space actually available to let is as low as 3.6%." Retail warehousing vacancy rates in the UK have once again fallen, now at 5.4% at the end of Q2 2023 according to the latest research by Trevor Wood Associates (TWA), compared to 6.1% at the turn of the year and 5.8% at Q1 2023. The major contributor to the significant fall in vacancy is retailers continuing to take advantage of the amount of second-hand supply made available by various administrations and CVA’s, so far in 2023 over 0.75 million sq. ft. of vacant space has been taken and 4.49 million sq. ft. in total has opened or is due to open this year. The Grocery sector continues to thrive on established parks or retail warehouse sites with Aldi adding 237,000 sq. ft. this year, Lidl opening over 170,000 sq. ft. out of town while Iceland and the food WAREHOUSE and Farmfoods added over 65,000 sq. ft. of space to their portfolio’s. The usual suspects also continue to lead the way in taking vacant space, B & M have opened or have committed to open another 16 units, The Range has added another 118,000 sq. ft. to their portfolio, Home Bargains added another 19 units while Poundland opened (or will open) another 215,000 sq. ft. since the end of last year. The face of retail parks and the out of town market as a whole continues to adapt to retailers needs, we are still seeing experiential retail and leisure on the rise with the likes of Tenpin due to open at both Chester Retail Park and Kingsway West Retail Park in Dundee later this year, the latter taking the 36,000 sq. ft. former Toys ‘R’ Us. Pure Gym have added over 273,000 sq. ft. of floorspace in 2023 and were crowned the second fastest rising retailer out of town in our publication The Definitive Guide to Retail & Leisure Parks earlier this year, while further store openings by The Gym, Snap fitness and JD Gyms as well has others as meant the gym operators have taken 374,000 sq. ft. in total already this year. The size of units and retailer requirements are also changing with over 456,000 sq. ft. of lettings in 2023 taken by retailers in units of 5,000 sq. ft. or below. We continue to see the rise of drive-thrus and drive-tos with Costa Coffee, Greggs, McDonald’s and Starbucks increasing their presence in the booming drive-thru market.

Summary of South West from The Definitive Guide to Retail & Leisure Parks 2023

Summary of The Definitive Guide to Retail & Leisure Parks 2023

Summary of the Yorkshire & Humber from The Definitive Guide to Retail & Leisure Parks 2023

Summary of the West Midlands from The Definitive Guide to Retail & Leisure Parks 2023

Summary of Wales from The Definitive Guide to Retail & Leisure Parks 2023

Summary of South East from The Definitive Guide to Retail & Leisure Parks 2023